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Jim Rogers Tells ETF-Holders “The Next Bear Will Be Horrendous”

October 2, 2017 Tyler Durden 0

Legendary investor Jim Rogers, who in 1973 founded the Quantum Funds, a prominent family of hedge funds, with then-unknown Hungarian-born financier named George Soros, joined RealVision’s Steve Diggle for a wide-ranging interview where the legendary financier, who moved to Singapore in 2007 with his family because he wanted his children to be immersed in Asian culture, discusses his views on gold, bitcoin, and what makes a good investor – along with his belief that a major correction in financial markets is about to begin.

The interview, which was filmed two weeks ago in Singapore, begins with a discussion of a theme in finance that’s been at the forefront of discussions about the market outlook. Many investors believe that, with volatility at record lows and valuations at record highs, a major shock is imminent. However, these same investors have been burned by uncooperative markets, as an expected selloff has yet to materialize.

Rogers said he stumbled into his first job on Wall Street, but ended up falling in love with it because it allowed him to “follow the world and know about things.”

He added that, over his investing career, Roger’s has learned that he has a tendency for his calls to be early. So now when he makes an investment decision, he waits six months before buying.

SD: How do you know the difference between being early and being wrong? Because –


JR: You teach me that, OK? I’d like to know. I’m still trying to learn.


SD: I really don’t know, either. I mean, one of the things that has confounded, I think, all of us in this most recent unprecedented rally – I mean, it’s not unprecedented in history, but the sort of things that have gone up and the level of volatility we’ve had that’s been unprecedented. The only period that I can compare it to are the late 90s, where just everything in a certain area went up. Now it was almost– at least in the States, it’s almost everything across the board. And there have been plenty of people who’ve wanted to short the FANGs, to short some of the tech stocks, to short some of these very expensive blue chips. And they’ve been very badly punched.


And then even in the face of very good mutual fund investors, people with tremendous track records like Grantham Mayo, who have moved to a higher cash position – they’ve seen massive reductions, because their own investors don’t seem inclined to stick around and see how it plays out. So both on a personal and professional level, being early seems to be incredibly painful and destructive to your business.


JR: Sure can.


SD: So if you’ve got a conviction, do you wait for a change in momentum? Do you use moving averages, which is something that I know people have been used, and I’ve used something myself, which is to wait until the 5 and 20-day diverge, and that gives you a signal that momentum’s coming out of a trade? Or do you just need to size it to a degree which you can be persistent?


JR: Well, I usually – since I know I’m always early, I make a decision and then wait, and just make myself wait a month, six months, whatever it happens to be. And I’m still too early. I’m still too early nearly always, because I make the decision too soon, I realize. So maybe I better start making the decision later in life. Sometimes, you just have to throw in the towel. Especially on the short side, you have no choice. If they’re just racing against you all the time, you can sit there and meet the margin calls all day long, but one of the old adages is, never beat a margin call, which you may have heard from old-time traders. If you’ve got a margin call, just don’t meet it, because that means something is very seriously wrong.


SD: Right, that’s your stop loss.


JR: Yeah, well, stop losses are usually before a margin call comes. But I want to go back to something you said. You’re not as experienced as I am, obviously, because you’re not as old as I am, is what I’m saying. But I remember in the early 70s, there was something called the Nifty 50, and they were 50 stocks that everybody – the JP Morgan bought everyday. Didn’t matter. Avon, Xerox, IBM – they were stocks that always were eternal growth stocks.


And they just kept – we would short them, and they just kept going up. They never stopped. Polaroid– that was another. And they just never stopped going up. Everything else stopped going up but those Nifty 50, which would be something like the FANGs today, or maybe in the late 90s, some of the other kinds of stocks. So this has happened before in market history. They eventually crack, there’s no question.


And to today, if you look at the S&P 500, for instance, in the US, I think there are only 40 or 45 stocks that are above their 50-day moving average, to use technician’s kind of talk. Everything else is in a downtrend. And yet the market is making all-time highs.


SD: And so there’s a lack of breadth in the market.


JR: Definitely that lack of breadth. What is that – over 90% of the stocks are in downtrends. 10% are in uptrends, but they’re big companies. And since the S&P is capitalization weighted, those 50 stocks, 40 stocks, whatever it is, dragged the average to all-time highs.

Diggles’ questions soon veered toward the subject of what makes a good investor. Some believe, Diggle says, that to have conviction, you need to know more than 98% of people who follow a stock.

Rogers said he was never a very disciplined investor, so it’s difficult for him to say how one develops skills like timing and good judgment.

Knowing more than your rivals is a major advantage, he says. But there’s something to be said for judgment that just can’t be taught.

SD: So what was different about your analysis? Had you gone deeper into this company? Because one of the things that you’ve said on a number of occasions, and I think it’s very impactful, is if you want to have conviction, you have to know more than not just 90% of the people, but 98% of the people who follow the stock. Is it that you’ve gone deeper? You’ve read the annual report, you’ve looked at what would now be the 14k. Or was it that you’d seen something with a greater level of skepticism or objectivity which other people had missed?


JR: Well, it’s both. If read the annual report, you’ve done more than 90% of investors. If you read the notes to the annual report, you’ve done more than nearly everybody, including the CEO of the company. So it is certainly knowing more than other people. But then it takes more than that. You also have to know more, but then you have to figure out what does it mean? Just because you know more, you have to then analyze it.

If 100 people go into a room and hear a presentation, Steve, they’ll all come out – most of them will come out with the same view. Seven or eight of those people will come out and say, aha, what this really means is it’s going down the tubes, or whatever you come out with. Or seven or eight will come out and say, this is the best thing since sliced bread.


They will realize. They will analyze it and understand it better than the others. It’s judgment. I don’t know how to teach judgment. I wish I knew how to teach judgment. Facts are wonderful. Knowing more than everybody else is a big, big, big leg up. But then judgment – how you get judgment? And that’s certainly what I didn’t have. I certainly didn’t have timing. Not that I do now, but I have a little better judgment than I used to, and a little better timing than I used to, because I learned to wait.


SD: So your prescription to be an above average investor, to go back to my original question, is be independent-minded, do your work. Don’t try and perfect the timing, but if you develop a high enough level of conviction around it, see it through.


JR: Yeah, that’s what I always do. And sometimes, I get it right. But I’ve certainly made plenty of mistakes in my life.

With stock and bond valuations hopelessly inflated, Rogers says investors hoping to lock in the highest risk-adjusted returns should consider buying gold coins. Barring that, gold futures are the next best market. Rogers says trading gold futures is a great strategy for traders because it’s a market where speculators have easy access to leverage.

Furthermore, investors who have time to conduct the due diligence should consider investing in a gold mine – but it needs to be the right gold mine.

SD: Going back to gold, so gold coins –


JR: Gold coins are the best way. And you should have physical possession of some gold coins. After that, gold futures are the best way if you want to make money and you’re a good trader. Gold futures, that’s where you can get the most leverage of any, unless you can find the right gold mine. But there are hundreds of gold mines. If you’re smart enough and have the time to find the right two or three gold mines, then, yeah, then you’ll make huge amounts of money in the right to – but, you know, there are hundreds of gold mines.

The conversation soon turned to a discussion of the ETF space, a market about which Rogers has many reservations.

SD: And investors do seem to be becoming more short-term, despite the fact that everything we know tells us that finding good people and backing them for the long-term is the most successful thing you can do. Investors seem to be becoming more and more influenced by very short-term records. And that’s one of the things that’s savaging the mutual fund industry right now. One of the things that I wanted to touch on is this ETF phenomena. I mean, it’s probably the equivalent of the Nifty Fifty of the day, which is buy everything in its weight, don’t do any research. Don’t take any views. Don’t even take a view on a manager let alone a stock, but just own a basket. And a lot of people feel great disquiet about this. I think your commodity index has a few ETFs on it, does it? So perhaps you’re not the guy to ask if you’re in the ETF industry.


JR: No, no, no, I certainly see what’s happening in ETFs. I mean I pay enough attention to know what’s going on. First of all, ETFs are very efficient, very easy, very simple. There’s no question about that.


Therein lies part of the problem, of course, with ETFs is that they are easy, simple, et cetera and that makes it easy for somebody to say oh, I want to buy Germany, buy the German ETF, and don’t even look to see what’s in the German ETF or whether it’s a good ETF to own. And maybe it should be a terrible ETF, but nobody looks anymore.


So there are excesses developing in the ETF business.


There’s no question about that. But don’t worry Steve, we’re going to have a bear market. And when we have the bear market, a lot of people are going to find that, oh my God, I own an ETF and they collapsed. It went down more than anything else. And the reason it will go down more than anything else is because that’s what everybody owns.

And it is this bear market that looms over the market that Rogers is most fearful of as the level of debt that has built across the globe makes a disaster inevitable…

JR: Steve, in America as you know, we’ve had bear markets every few years.


SD: We used to.


JR: Well done. And Janet Yellen will tell you we’re never going to have a bear market again because she’s smarter than we are, she’s smarter than the markets, and the central bank has things under control now. She publicly stated this. Do not worry. We will not have financial calamities again. Head of the central bank in America has said that out loud officially, Mrs. Yellen– yeah, Mrs. Yellen.


I happen to have a different view. Now if you believe the American central bank, you shouldn’t be talking to me at all. But we’ve had, we used to have bear markets every several years. We always, always since the beginning of the republic. In my view we will have them again.


And the next one is going to be horrendous, the worst– you came in the business in ’86. It will be the worst in your lifetime, in your financial experience.


And the reason, in 2008 we had a bear market because of too much debt, staggering amounts of debt. Steve, since 2008 the debt has gone through the roof. Every country in the world talks about austerity. Nobody has reduced their debt in the last few years.


Everybody has increased their debt in the last few years. And so the next time we have a bear market, it’s going to be horrendous because of this.


Even China– in 2008, the Chinese had a lot of money saved for a rainy day. It started raining in Singapore. They had a lot of money saved for a rainy day. It started raining.


They started spending and helped save the world. But even China has a lot of debt now.

Like his fellow hedge-fund luminary Ray Dalio, Jim Rogers is a cryptocurrency skeptic. However, his outlook is somewhat more nuanced. While Rogers says he doesn’t know enough about the market to have a view on which coins might prosper and which might die on the vine, he suggested that people shouldn’t assume that bitcoin will dominate the market forever.

After all, Rogers says, most people have never heard of the company that invented the automobile – it disappeared long ago, he said. There once were hundreds of companies manufacturing cars around the world. Now, he says, there are only 25.

SD: Well, there’s been plenty of commentary on cryptocurrencies or cybercurrencies on RealVision and in the mainstream. We’re trading them. it’s an extraordinary financial experiment. If you’re a libertarian, I guess you mind find it inspiring that this has happened with absolutely no regulation. But where do we go with these things? Are you a true believer?


JR: Well, Steve–


SD: Are you an enormous skeptic?


JR: I don’t own one, nor am I short one. So I am neutral in that sense. I do know that there are over 2,000 now in just a few years. And anything that booms like that usually has a reason – there’s reason for skepticism. You do know that some of them are already zero.


I think the Wall Street Journal had an article yesterday maybe that 30% of the ones that have been launched in the last year or two are at zero because they have not traded. Now, there are some that have been skyrocketing. They’ve gone up 30 or 40, 100 times. So if you own the ones that have gone up 30 times, you think these are wonderful. If you own the ones that have gone to zero – or some have already gone bankrupt.


Somebody offered me a lot of them recently. And while I was doing my homework, it turned out to be a sham, a fraud. Fortunately, I was doing my homework so I never got around to taking them.


There’s no question that the world has money problems. There’s no question that all of our lives are being changed by the internet. My kids will never go to a bank when they’re adults. My kids will never go to a post office.


They may rarely go to a doctor when they’re adults. And so money’s going to change on the internet too.


Which one? I don’t know. You’ve heard of IBM in the computer business? IBM did not invent computers. The company that invented computers you never heard of, likewise with automobiles. I mean, there were hundreds of automobile companies 100 years ago. There are only 25 now.

Rogers, who chafes at being called a contrarian, says one sure-fire strategy for strong investing returns is investing in assets that are “hated” by the broader investing community, for example his Russian-stock investments are making all time highs, he said.

SD: I want to turn to a few specific sectors now rather than the general outlook of the world. It’s clear that you’re very concerned about that, though not so concerned that you want to actually be fighting it with aggressive shorts right now. One thing that you’ve spoken about in the past and one thing that we are exposed to is agriculture. It’s an area that’s generating quite a lot of comment. But from our experience, very few people have actually done anything about it. Very few pension funds, very few individuals have exposure to it. It’s hard to get through the stock market. There are very few agriculture companies, certainly on land-owning companies. You can get exposure through the food industry. But you became very positive about the agriculture a while ago. Where are you know on that?


JR: I’m extremely bullish on agriculture. That hasn’t made me any money yet. Well it has a little bit because one of my largest shareholdings – a large – well, it’s not one of my largest, but I am a director of a Russian fertilizer company which is making all-time highs or near all-time highs, which is pretty astonishing given that it’s Russia and everybody hates Russia, as you well know. In fact I’m startled that all of my Russian stocks making all-time highs.


And this is a hated market. So it’s something I have learned. If you buy something that’s hated, chances are you’re going to make a lot of money down the road.

In one of his last questions, Diggle pointed out that Rogers, who began working on Wall Street during the first half of the twentieth century, has often expressed a disdain for young people working in finance.

Diggle says he first noticed this about Rogers while reading a piece he wrote for Barron’s Magazine in the late 1980s.

Rogers says he doesn’t trust young people for one simple reason: They’re often cocky. But the Darwinian nature of Wall Street quickly separates the wheat from the chaff, making those who survive far more tolerable.

SD: I think you have something against guys in their 20s because the first time I became aware of you as an investor was a Barron’s article written in the summer of 1987, and it’s a very impressive article. I was very young on Wall Street. And there was this guy, Jim Rogers, and they said, what do are you bearish on, Jim? And you said, the world. There are all these 20-something guys that are thinking that they deserve six figures just because they work on Wall Street and they know how to buy stocks. And three, four months later, you turned out to be absolutely right.


But as a 20-something at the time, I thought you were being very unfair on 20-something guys. Now that I’m 53, I share your view of these 20-year-old guys. You’ve got to stay away from them.


JR: Well, but see, you made it. You survived. You’re a 26-year-old or 20-year-old who made it and survived, and so it’s OK. Many of them don’t and don’t know why. They make a lot of money. They don’t know why they made money.


So they don’t know why they lose money. They don’t know what happened.


You, at least, something happened. You’re still here. You still have a job. You’re still in the investment world.


SD: I’m self-employed like you.


JR: Right.

Rogers has recently been vocal about his bearish outlook on the markets. In an interview during the summer, he claimed that the largest financial crisis of his lifetime is still to come.

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Behind Vancouver’s Housing Bubble: How Canadian Casinos Are Use To Launder Millions In Chinese Drug Money

October 2, 2017 Tyler Durden 0

Nearly two years after we first observed that Vancouver‘s soaring real estate market is nothing but a bubbling melange of criminal Chinese oligarch “hot money”, desperate to get parked offshore in any piece of real estate, but mostly in British Columbia regardless of price, a new multi-year investigation has uncovered extensive links – including money laundering and underground banking – between China’s criminal underworld and British Columbia drug and casino cash and VIPs, and their connections to China, Macau and the norotious triads.

Here is Postmedia’s real estate reporter Sam Cooper reporting on and explaining how British Columbia casinos are used to launder millions in drug cash.

* * *

On Oct. 15, 2015, a Mountie burst through the front door of an office in Richmond, carrying a battering ram and with a rifle slung on his back. The door swung shut behind him, locking him inside. He was in the lobby of Silver International Investment, a high-end money transfer business, surrounded by bulletproof glass. Behind a second glass door, a woman rushed to make a call while hiding several cellphones. Under her desk was a safe stuffed with bundles of cash. The Mountie, a large man, counted seconds anxiously, wondering if the woman would unlock the interior door.

It was one of 10 police raids in Richmond that day — part of a major investigation that has uncovered massive money laundering and underground banking networks with links to Mainland China, Macau and B.C. casinos, allege the RCMP’s federal organized crime unit and China’s national police service.

Postmedia has spent six months looking into the case, involving freedom of information requests for thousands of documents and dozens of interviews with government and law enforcement sources that were not authorized to be identified. Now, the inside story can be told of the investigations that led B.C.’s attorney general last week to order an independent review of casinos overseen by the B.C. Lottery Corp.

In late August, at a Vancouver conference attended by U.S. and Canadian law enforcement officials, RCMP Insp. Bruce Ward outlined the details of E-Pirate, the investigation into Silver International, Asian organized crime groups, and an alleged $500-million-plus international money laundering service run from Richmond. Central to the money laundering probe, allege B.C. government documents, is suspect Paul King Jin, a 50-year-old Richmond spa owner.

Paul King Jin, from a 2011 CTV News Vancouver video

BCLC and B.C. gaming policy enforcement branch documents say that information revealed by the RCMP’s investigation into Jin and Silver led them to suspect the funds are tied to “transnational drug trafficking … (that) could have a potentially devastating impact on the casino industry.” Jin allegedly helped ultra-wealthy Mainland China “whale” gamblers, recruited in Macau, to gamble in B.C., the investigation documents allege.

The Macau whales were able to gamble with suspected drug cash supplied by Jin’s network, especially at River Rock Casino, the investigation documents allege. With those funds borrowed from Jin and “private lenders,” they were not only able to gamble, but to develop real estate in B.C.

Without naming names, a paragraph in the confidential MNP LLP audit of B.C. Lottery Corp. that the attorney general released last week describes underground banking channels that allowed “Chinese nationals” to evade China’s tight capital controls and transfer wealth into B.C.

Investigators learned the Chinese whale gamblers were “provided with a contact in Vancouver, either locally or prior to arriving in Vancouver,” the MNP report says. Next, the gamblers would “contact the person via phone for cash delivery,” which they use to buy chips at a casino. The gamblers would repay these funds “through cash holdings in China.” When the gamblers cash out, they are left with money available for use in Canada.

At the anti-money-laundering conference in late August, the RCMP’s Ward used security videos seized from Silver International’s office, in a multi-storey business complex in the 5800-block of Cooney Road, to explain Silver’s operations. Ward walked conference attendees through a security video that showed the Mountie attempting to enter Silver’s office.

“This lady is the primary target, she returns to her desk, she is hiding her three cellphones and calls someone,” Ward said. “Meanwhile there is a very anxious police officer counting the seconds, waiting to be let in.”

The woman allowed the Mountie and additional officers to enter Silver’s inner sanctum, and what they found could lead to one of the most significant money laundering cases ever in Canada, police say. Ward said Silver was so diligent in recording transactions, and its security system videos are so revealing that Mounties believe they are able to clear a difficult hurdle for Canadian law enforcement: proving that laundered money is directly connected to a “predicate” crime, in this case, drug-trafficking.

In the E-Pirate raids, RCMP seized 132 computers and cellphones, yielding 30 terabytes in data. If all that digital evidence were printed on paper, it would fill almost three million thick telephone books. And ledgers suggest that in only one year, Silver laundered $220 million in cash in B.C., and sent over $300 million offshore, according to Ward.

“This is huge,” one police officer, who was not authorized to be identified, said of the case’s expected impact. “This could change money laundering in B.C.”

In the raid on Silver International’s office on Cooney Road, civil forfeiture documents allege, Mounties seized over $2 million in mostly $20 bills, plus ledgers and daily transaction records. The claim also alleges that two people identified entering the Silver office were later stopped by Mounties on Highway 5 in Merritt, driving a car with $1 million in suspected drug cash stuffed into two suitcases in the trunk.

On Wednesday, Zachary Ng, a lawyer for Jin, told Postmedia he would “convey” requests for comment on E-Pirate allegations to Jin. But Ng said he could not immediately comment. Matthew Nathanson, lawyer for Silver International Investments, said: “I don’t have any comment on this matter.”

To understand Silver’s network, law enforcement had to understand the nature of organized crime in Richmond and Mainland China, which operates “parallel” to the Chinese business community, according to Ward.

“Any given gangster, if you want to call them that, businessman, will have many schemes and thus many networks, and this networking is what facilitated the business,” Ward said. “Because they were able to start a profession of money laundering … to all their friends in drug dealing, who needed the service of converting cash into bankable instruments.”

Ward said Silver International and Jin’s alleged network had many facets, but the main business stemmed from funding the “whale” gamblers, who gambled both in B.C. legal casinos, and illegal gaming houses set up in rural Richmond.

“Part of what we found, is they had two ongoing illegal casinos where the same businessmen who are part of the conspiracy were able to provide non-legal gambling for these offshore gamblers,” Ward told conference attendees. Describing the unimaginable wealth of these Chinese gamblers, Ward said that each man typically gambled between $100,000 and $1 million on a weekend visit to the Lower Mainland. The RCMP’s investigation started with surveillance of gambling and cash drops at River Rock Casino, which led to Silver International’s cash house.

“The primary target that led us there, was a person that is involved in generating ‘whales’ … these high-end gamblers,” Ward said. “His expertise is going over and working in Macau, identifying rich Chinese businessmen that would go to Macau, and he was attracting them to Canada, to gamble. He would use Silver International as a bank account.”

Describing a typical delivery, Ward said: “They would put $100,000 into a hockey bag, show up at the casino, and give (the VIP gambler) $100,000 … the loaning out would go to Chinese offshore gamblers coming into Canada.” Ward said Canadian residents were also loaned cash from Silver in “loan sharking” operations. And Lower Mainland wire transfer businesses were also funded with suspected drug money.

“The extra cash they had would end up in money exchanges, to wire money around the world.”

According to B.C. Lottery Corp. documents, anti-money-laundering investigators identified Paul King Jin in 2012, and these investigators collaborated with B.C. law enforcement to identify Jin’s alleged network, and about 36 gamblers believed to have received criminal cash to buy chips in B.C. casinos.

A suspicious-transaction report filed in 2014 by B.C. Lottery Corp. to Fintrac, Canada’s anti-money laundering agency, says Jin “has been identified as one of the main cash facilitators in the Lower Mainland for casino VIP patrons.” From 2012 to 2014 Jin logged 50 large cash transactions and at least $1.24 million in cash buy-ins, the report says. Jin has been banned from all B.C. casinos for five years, according to the Fintrac report, because of an “extensive history of suspicious incidents.”

BCLC investigators found that Jin and “numerous other people” believed to be working for him were discovered delivering “large amounts of bundled $20 bills” to “known VIP players with … considerable wealth with mostly Asian-based businesses.”

When Jin was barred from casino properties, he continued delivering cash to VIPs, but in parking lots outside or nearby casinos, the Fintrac report alleges.

“Jin was also recently brought to the attention of BCLC by law enforcement agencies that are working with BCLC to identify patrons that are involved in known criminal organizations in B.C.,” the 2014 Fintrac report says. “BCLC is actively working with the RCMP gang unit.”

Jin does not have a criminal record, but has been found guilty of a number of city bylaw infractions. In 2011, Richmond cancelled the licence for Jin’s spa, The Water Club, after RCMP visits. Directors of the club were from Mainland China, Mayor Malcolm Brodie’s council was told. Brodie’s council had access to a report from a Richmond RCMP officer, who noted that in police visits to Jin’s club: “Members later confirmed that high level drug traffickers were inside getting ‘foot massages’ … it is suspected that Jin was meeting with members who are associated to drugs and violence.”

In his E-Pirate presentation in late August, Ward said RCMP surveillance identified 40 different organizations linked to Asian organized groups dealing cocaine, heroin and methamphetamine. Gangsters or their couriers were delivering “suitcases laden with cash” to Silver International’s cash house, allegedly at an average rate of $1.5 million a day.

At Silver, dealers could drop off $100,000 in cash in a suitcase, Ward said, and within minutes a credit for $95,000 would appear in a Chinese bank, after a five per cent fee taken for the laundering and transfer service. Using an alleged transaction from Silver’s security tapes as an example, Ward explained.

“This is a typical event, of a drug dealer bringing in cash. She receives a call, and she goes out to receive a trusted customer … the vast majority is $20s,” Ward said. “The relationship is such, and trusted, that the phone call is made, ‘I’m coming in with $1.4 million,’ and the staff will wire transfer the credit for that in China, before the cash even comes in the door.”

Ward alleged Silver got so sophisticated that it evolved into an operation that could wire funds to Mexico and Peru, allowing drug dealers to buy narcotics without carrying cash outside Canada, and cover up the international money transfers with fake trade invoices from China.

“They facilitated drug trafficking and moved money from it around the world,” Ward said, pointing to slides of transaction records captured in the E-Pirate raids. “This is a typical request, a direction from Silver International to move money from their own account to a drug dealer’s account. We saw evidence of over 600 (bank) accounts in China that were controlled or fed by Silver International. Chinese police have followed up, and they have labelled this a massive underground banking system.” RCMP seized over $9 million, including millions in cash during E-Pirate, and are trying to seize about $4 million in assets, Ward said.

Mountie lab technicians considered themselves lucky the cash seizures in 2015 took place before B.C.’s deadly fentanyl crisis hit, Ward said, since drug cash handled in Vancouver now is often dangerous, covered in traces of fentanyl dust.

Sources in B.C. government and federal law enforcement say it is believed Jin’s network and the Chinese VIP gamblers allegedly funded by Silver International own many luxury properties in the Lower Mainland. But it’s difficult for Canadian governments to seize assets believed to be directly connected to crime.

“It is very difficult nowadays to say, ‘OK, that house that is being used as a casino is an illegal residence, so let’s seize it,” Ward said. “But who owns it? We are finding now, not only one layer of nominees, but two, three and four. And some of those nominees live in China. And they are either related to you, or they don’t even know they are owners. So for many of the properties, we just had to walk away.”


A civil forfeiture action against Silver International Investment and two men, Andy Kai Wai Cheung and Yong Li Chen, was launched in August 2015. The action states the men were witnessed by RCMP surveillance among a number of the people entering Silver’s office with suitcases.

RCMP later stopped a rented Chevrolet Malibu with Alberta plates on Highway 5 in Merritt. In the car were Cheung, who has a criminal record in the United States for conspiring to import ecstasy, and Chen. In the trunk, the claim alleges, was a black suitcase holding $349,950 split into 35 bundles of $10,000. And in a hard shell suitcase was $649,560 in vacuum-sealed bags. The cash indicated ‘positive’ for drug residue, the claim states, and was “bundled in elastic bands and shrink-wrapped in a manner consistent with drug trafficking.”

Silver International has stated it has no connection to the cash, and Cheung and Chen deny any wrongdoing. The action continues.

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Trial to begin in assassination of N. Korea leader’s brother

October 2, 2017 rbksa 0
The Associated Press
Mon, 2017-10-02 03:00

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia: The trial of two women accused of poisoning the estranged half brother of North Korea’s ruler is scheduled to begin Monday in Malaysia’s High Court, nearly eight months after the brazen airport assassination.
Siti Aisyah of Indonesia and Doan Thi Huong of Vietnam are suspected of smearing Kim Jong Nam’s face with the banned VX nerve agent on Feb. 13 at a crowded airport terminal in Kuala Lumpur, killing him within about 20 minutes. The women say they thought they were playing a harmless prank for a hidden-camera show.
The women are the only suspects in custody in a killing that South Korea’s spy agency said was part of a five-year plot by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to kill a brother he reportedly never met. Police say several North Koreans suspected of involvement left the country on the day of the attack and others were allowed to leave later in a diplomatic deal with Pyongyang.
The two women, who face the death penalty if convicted, will plead not guilty at the start of the trial, their lawyers said.
Prosecutors will then start to call their witnesses, with the first few likely to be medical experts to establish the cause of death, said Hisyam Teh Poh Teik, Huong’s lawyer. The trial is expected to last for about two months, after which the judge will decide if there is a strong case for the women to have to mount their defense, Teh said.
Kim, who was 45 or 46, was the eldest son of the family that has ruled North Korea since its founding, yet he reportedly fell out of favor in 2001 when he was caught trying to enter Japan on a false passport, saying he wanted to visit Tokyo Disneyland. He had been living abroad for years and at the time of his death was traveling on a North Korean diplomatic passport under the name “Kim Chol.”
North Korea has a long history of ordering killings of people it views as threats to its regime, though Kim was not thought to be seeking influence over his younger brother. He had, however, spoken out publicly against his family’s dynastic control of the reclusive, nuclear-armed nation.
Pyongyang has denied any role in the killing and has not even acknowledged the dead man was Kim Jong Nam. It has suggested the victim died of a heart attack and accused Malaysia of working with South Korean and other “hostile forces” in blaming Pyongyang.
The trial will be closely watched by the Indonesian and Vietnamese governments, which have hired lawyers to defend the women.
Aisyah’s core defense will be that she didn’t know she had poison on her hand when she smeared Kim’s face and was instead the victim of an elaborate trick, her lawyer Gooi Soon Seng said. The 25-year-old was at a pub in Kuala Lumpur in early January when she was recruited by a North Korean man to star in what he said were video prank shows, Gooi said.
Over the course of several days, the North Korean, who went by the name James, had Aisyah go out to malls, hotels and airports and rub oil or pepper sauce on strangers, which he would film on his phone, the lawyer said.
Aisyah was paid $100-$200 for each prank and hoped the income would allow her to stop working as an escort, Gooi said.
In late January, Aisyah flew to Cambodia, where James introduced her to a man called Chang, who said he was the producer of video prank shows for the Chinese market, the lawyer said. Back in Malaysia, Chang asked Aisyah to do several more pranks at the Kuala Lumpur airport a few days before Kim was attacked. At the airport on the day of Kim’s death, Chang pointed him out to Aisyah as the next target and put the poison on her hand, the lawyer said.
Police say neither Chang nor James were who they say they were. Chang was actually Hong Song Hac, one of four North Korean suspects who left Malaysia on the day of the killing, while James was Ri Ji U, one of another three North Koreans who hid inside their country’s embassy in Kuala Lumpur to avoid questioning.
Those three were later allowed to fly home in exchange for nine Malaysians allowed to leave Pyongyang in a deal easing the countries’ diplomatic tensions. Gooi said James was key to Aisyah’s defense and that his absence could weaken her case.
Aisyah, who has a son, has wrote to her family and told them to pray for her “so that the case will be over soon and I can go back home.”
The 29-year-old Vietnamese suspect Huong was caught on airport security surveillance camera wearing a white sweatshirt emblazoned with the big black letters “LOL” — the acronym for laughing out loud. Little is known about her. Raised in a rice farm in northern Vietnam, her family said they had hardly heard from her since she left home a decade ago.
She made postings on a Facebook page under the name Ruby Ruby, according to her niece, Dinh Thi Quyen.
Photos on the page show Huong wearing a white shirt that says “LOL,” like the one seen during the attack. It shows her posing for selfies in January in Cambodia and in Kuala Lumpur a few days before the attack.
Her last post was on the morning of Feb. 11, two days before the attack, from an area near the airport.

Main category: 
Women to plead not guilty in high-profile Kim Jong Nam murder trial
Suspects in Kim Jong Nam murder appear in Malaysia court
Lawyer: Malaysia may have compromised Kim Jong Nam case

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Which Altcoins To Buy This Week (1st of October, 2017) – Live Bitcoin News

October 2, 2017 cody 0

Live Bitcoin NewsWhich Altcoins To Buy This Week (1st of October, 2017)Live Bitcoin NewsLast week, the price of most major altcoins stabilized following a bullish week that witnessed some considerable gains in the price of multiple coins. Ethereum ETH…

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Visualizing America’s Disappearing Workforce

October 1, 2017 Tyler Durden 0

In his September 2017 paper entitled ‘Where Have All the Workers Gone? An Inquiry into the Decline of the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate’, Alan B. Krueger of Princeton University explores the dramatic fall in labor force participation in the U.S. from 1997 to 2017.

As Statista’s Martin Armstrong shows in the infographic below, over the last twenty years, the rate has fallen the most for the under 20’s, with the share of 16 to 17 year olds in work dropping by 18.4 and 16.2 percentage points for men and women, respectively.

Infographic: America's Disappearing Workforce | Statista

You will find more statistics at Statista

As Krueger reports, last year, Italy was the only OECD country which had a lower participation rate of prime age men than the United States. One of the reasons posited by the research is the opioid crisis currently ravaging the country. Labor force participation rates have fallen more in areas where more opioid pain medication is prescribed. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the amount of opioids prescribed in 2015 was three times higher than it was in 1999.

As noted in the paper, while the direction of causality is not clear, a 2017 report by David Mericle entitled ‘The Opioid Epidemic and the U.S. Economy’ states that “the opioid epidemic is intertwined with the story of declining prime-age participation, especially for men, and this reinforces our doubts about a rebound in the participation rate.”

But as we pointed out previously, after spending months, or maybe even years, running very complicated regressions that your simple mind could never possibly understand, Krueger would like for you to believe that it’s the growing opioid epidemic that is forcing men to sit on their couches all day rather than look for work.  Here’s a summary of his findings from the Brookings Institute:

The increase in opioid prescriptions from 1999 to 2015 could account for about 20 percent of the observed decline in men’s labor force participation (LFP) during that same period.


In “Where have all the workers gone? An inquiry into the decline of the U.S. labor force participation rate” (PDF), Princeton University’s Alan Krueger examines the labor force implications of the opioid epidemic on a local and national level.


Among other findings, the research suggests that:


  • Regional variation in opioid prescription rates across the U.S. is due in large part to differences in medical practices, rather than varying health conditions. Pain medication is more widely used in counties where health care professionals prescribe greater quantities of opioid medication, with a 10 percent increase in opioid prescriptions per capita is associated with a 2 percent increase in the share of individuals who report taking a pain medication on any given day. When accounting for individuals’ disability status, self-reported health, and demographic characteristics, the effect is cut roughly in half, but remains statistically significant.


  • Over the last 15 years, LFP fell more in counties where more opioids were prescribed. Krueger reaches this conclusion by linking 2015 county-level opioid prescription rates to individual level labor force data in 1999-2001 and 2014-16. For more on the relationship between prescription rates and labor force participation rate on the county-level.

Krueger also provided this very helpful map proving that opioid abuse is highly correlated to unemployment.  Of course, it couldn’t possibly be the case that opioid abuse is the result of high unemployment and the associated depression that goes along with it…no, the opioid abuse definitely came first.


So, what is Krueger’s solution to help reverse the seemingly perpetual decline in labor force participation rates?  If you guessed ‘Obamacare’ then you’re absolutely right…and unfortunately, no, that is not a joke…here is the excerpt from page 38 of Krueger’s paper:

Third, addressing the decades-long slide in labor force participation by prime age men should be a national priority. This group expresses low levels of SWB and reports finding relatively little meaning in their daily activities. Because nearly half of this group reported being in poor health, it may be possible for expanded health insurance coverage and preventative care under the Affordable Care Act to positively affect the health of prime age men going forward.

And while we would never presume to be smart enough to question the very thorough, impartial research of a Princeton economist, we do wonder whether it’s in any way relevant that labor force participation rates seemingly started to decline in 1965…


…at exactly the same time that welfare spending started to surge?


It’s probably just a coincidence.

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Futures Saunter Higher In Careless Jaunt Towards Dissipation

October 1, 2017 The_Real_Fly 0

Fascism has been rearing its ugly head all weekend in Spain and has delighted investors to no end. S&P futures are heading up now, +3 in early trade. Over in Europe, the optimism born in Spanish law and order has become somewhat infectious, delight…

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Robert Gore: “The US Has Become An Infantile Nation”

October 1, 2017 Tyler Durden 0

Authored by Robert Gore via Straight Line Logic,
Looking for a good laugh? Consider the United States.

Football is a tedious game that fills three-and-a-half hours of airtime with 30 minutes of action, commercials, commentary, instant replays, more in…

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An Interview with Robin Lee, the CEO of HelloGold

October 1, 2017 Gautham 0

HelloGold is the latest platform that is making an effort to accelerate the adoption of blockchain technology by the masses. As the project aims to create a blockchain solution to help the unbanked and underbanked population, NewsBTC reached out to Robin Lee, the CEO to gain a better understanding of HelloGold. Q: If we have … Continue reading An Interview with Robin Lee, the CEO of HelloGold

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Free Talk Live’s Co-Host Discusses Bitcoin Radio Ads and Accepting Bitcoin Cash

October 1, 2017 Jamie Redman 0

This week chatted with Ian Freeman, co-host of the libertarian political talk show Free Talk Live (FTL). The call-in radio talk show is syndicated on over 160 radio stations and was the first radio show in the world to start accepting Bitcoin for ad payments. The broadcast has national radio ads promoting bitcoin to […]

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